Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 9.605134 11.876030 14.426762 17.483578 21.025965 24.980461 29.706494
2025-12-28 6.538098 9.445314 13.097651 17.931708 24.063302 31.480390 41.020173
2026-01-04 4.790552 7.871871 12.106143 18.150606 26.338064 36.813119 50.970034
2026-01-11 3.700974 6.821723 11.456993 18.503651 28.565794 42.014330 60.886972
2026-01-18 2.980205 6.103750 11.077252 19.060109 30.974464 47.478046 71.347551
2026-01-25 2.268337 5.198848 10.214910 18.718205 31.970936 50.968136 79.236509
2026-02-01 1.824357 4.640029 9.784281 18.931287 33.723198 55.542551 88.778938
2026-02-08 1.404512 4.001876 9.087772 18.587230 34.530905 58.724970 96.429797
2026-02-15 1.057869 3.403644 8.339984 18.028908 34.896704 61.204205 103.105940
2026-02-22 0.893580 3.171684 8.245037 18.587899 37.094842 66.548648 114.213865
2026-03-01 0.693413 2.776793 7.741644 18.320534 37.852556 69.654823 122.042178
2026-03-08 0.554684 2.494662 7.419712 18.343875 39.085167 73.540711 131.182849
2026-03-15 0.381715 2.035803 6.628689 17.393776 38.615727 74.818849 136.623280
2026-03-22 0.311406 1.884672 6.541814 17.882751 40.817473 80.644104 149.552108
2026-03-29 0.244847 1.707001 6.345212 18.104149 42.520801 85.699456 161.431009
2026-04-05 0.195736 1.568543 6.218959 18.456694 44.486216 91.277457 174.349077
2026-04-12 0.160973 1.471646 6.186078 19.012064 46.875950 97.684173 188.840455
2026-04-19 0.115000 1.272253 5.796233 18.670838 47.438811 100.889796 198.113523
2026-04-26 0.088845 1.159842 5.645570 18.883498 49.131209 106.165555 211.022398
2026-05-03 0.061674 1.001739 5.294994 18.540123 49.627824 109.282360 220.350204
2026-05-10 0.040032 0.843823 4.888302 17.982913 49.610399 111.432438 228.066069
2026-05-17 0.032145 0.800075 4.896447 18.540790 52.047175 118.239497 244.061327
2026-05-24 0.021288 0.694412 4.622029 18.273957 52.632833 121.573620 254.067510